Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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10. Regional Climate Information - Evaluation and Projections

Contents

Executive Summary

10.1 Introduction

10.1.1 Summary of SAR
10.1.2 The Regional Climate Problem

10.2 Deriving Regional Information: Principles, Objectives and Assumptions

10.2.1 Coupled AOGCMs
10.2.2 High Resolution and Variable Resolution AGCM Experiments
10.2.3 Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
10.2.4 Empirical/Statistical and Statistical/Dynamical Downscaling
10.2.5 Sources of Uncertainty in the Generation ofRegional Climate Change Information

10.3 Regional Attributes of AOGCMs

10.3.1 Simulations of Current Climate
10.3.1.1 Mean climate
10.3.1.2 Climate variabilitwy and extreme events
10.3.2 Simulations of Climate Change
10.3.2.1 Mean climate
10.3.2.2 Climate variability and extreme events
10.3.3 Summary and Recommendations

10.4 GCMs with Variable and Increased Horizontal Resolution

10.4.1 Simulations of Current Climate
10.4.1.1 Mean climate
10.4.1.2 Climate variability and extreme events
10.4.2 Simulations of Climate Change
10.4.2.1 Mean climate
10.4.2.2 Climate variability and extreme events
10.4.3 Summary and Recommendations

10.5 Regional Climate Models

10.5.1 Simulations of Current Climate
10.5.1.1 Mean climate: Simulations using analyses of observations
10.5.1.2 Mean climate: Simulations using GCM boundary conditions
10.5.1.3 Climate variability and extreme events
10.5.2 Simulations of Climate Change
10.5.2.1 Mean climate
10.5.2.2 Climate variability and extreme events
10.5.3 Summary and Recommendations

10.6 Empirical/Statistical and Statistical/Dynamical Methods

10.6.1 Introduction
10.6.2 Methodological Options
10.6.2.1 Weather generators
10.6.2.2 Transfer functions
10.6.2.3 Weather typing
10.6.3 Issues in Statistical Downscaling
10.6.3.1 Temporal variance
10.6.3.2 Evaluation
10.6.3.3 Choice of predictors
10.6.4 Intercomparison of Statistical Downscaling Methodologies
10.6.5 Summary and Recommendations

10.7 Intercomparison of Methods

10.8 Summary Assessment

Appendix 10.1

Appendix 10.2

Appendix 10.3

Appendix 10.4

References

Co-ordinating Lead Authors
F. Giorgi, B. Hewitson

Lead Authors
J. Christensen, M. Hulme, H. Von Storch, P. Whetton, R. Jones, L. Mearns, C. Fu

Contributing Authors
R. Arritt, B. Bates, R. Benestad, G. Boer, A. Buishand, M. Castro, D. Chen, W. Cramer, R. Crane, J. F. Crossley, M. Dehn, K. Dethloff, J. Dippner, S. Emori, R. Francisco, J. Fyfe, F.W. Gerstengarbe, W. Gutowski, D. Gyalistras, I. Hanssen-Bauer, M. Hantel, D.C. Hassell, D. Heimann, C. Jack, J. Jacobeit, H. Kato, R. Katz, F. Kauker, T. Knutson, M. Lal, C. Landsea, R. Laprise, L.R. Leung, A.H. Lynch, W. May, J.L. McGregor, N.L. Miller, J. Murphy, J. Ribalaygua, A. Rinke, M. Rummukainen, F. Semazzi, K. Walsh, P. Werner, M. Widmann, R. Wilby, M. Wild, Y. Xue

Review Editors
M. Mietus, J. Zillman



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